AFC SOUTH PREVIEW
Vinsanity
Tennessee Titans
2006 Record: 8-8
Last Year Summary: In 2005, the Titans went 4-12 and were rewarded with the #3 overall pick in the ’06 NFL Draft. It was obvious that the Titans were going to select a QB and since the team had just hired former USC OC Norm Chow as their new offensive coordinator, everyone expected that QB to be Matt Leinart. The Titans selected Vince Young and if the ’07 season meant anything, it meant that Tennessee made the right choice. After the Titans started the year 0-3, head coach Jeff Fisher decided to make Young the starter. In his second NFL start, Young almost led the Titans to a huge upset over the Indianapolis Colts (but lost 13-14). After getting his feet wet, Young won eight of the next 11 games. 
During that span the Titans won at Philadelphia (31-13), pulled of an amazing comeback against the New York Giants (won 24-21, despite trailing 0-21 in the fourth quarter), beat Indy on a 60-yard field goal (20-17) and beat Jacksonville (24-17). After winning six straight, the Titans had a slim chance to make the playoffs in the final week of the season. They needed to beat New England and have three other teams lose. Two of the teams lost, but so did Tennessee 23-40. Vince Young had a great rookie season despite his ugly passing statistics. Young threw for 2,199 yards, completed only 51.5% of his passes and had a touchdown/interception ratio of 12/13. However, it seemed whenever the Titans had a third down, Young would scramble and get enough yardage for the first down. Young rushed for 552 yards on 83 carries (6.7 yards per carry) and scored on seven rushing touchdowns. Despite missing two games, RB Travis Henry rushed for 1,211 yards and had seven rushing touchdowns. LB Keith Bulluck led the defense with 144 total tackles. CB Pacman Jones had a good season and finished with four interceptions for 130 yards and a touchdown. Jones excelled on punt returns, where he returned three for touchdowns. Statistically, the Titans were much worse than their 8-8 record indicated. Overall, the offense ranked 27th in yards per game (300.6) and the defense was last in the NFL in yards allowed (369.7).
Additions: CB Nick Harper (Indianapolis), WR Eric Moulds (Houston), DB Kelly Herndon (Seattle), LB Ryan Fowler (Dallas), WR Justin Gage (Chicago), LB Gilbert Gardner (Indianapolis), QB Tim Rattay (Tampa Bay), DB Bryan Scott (New Orleans), OT Seth Wand (Houston) and DT Lauvale Sape (Buffalo).
Subtractions: RB Travis Henry (to DEN), WR Drew Bennett (to TEN), DT Robaire Smith (to CLE), LB Colby Brockwoldt (to SF), OG Zach Piller (to DET) and WR Bobby Wade (to MIN).
2007 Season Summary: Due to Vince Young’s emergence last year, coach Jeff Fisher has job security and the Titans will play on Monday Night Football twice in ’07. Young will get better in ’07, but will have to overcome the ‘Madden Jinx.’ Also, there is something called a ‘sophomore jinx.’ Young shouldn’t have either one, unless the ‘Madden Jinx’ takes affect, which usually comes in the form of an injury. The move in late July to sign WR Eric Moulds should help in Young’s development. WR David Givens played in only five games last year and is coming off a serious knee injury. The loss of Henry should hurt. Nonetheless, this young Titans team will be fun to watch. The big story this offseason is Pacman Jones. Jones’ suspension is made out to be a bigger deal than it really is, the signing of CB Nick Harper was key. Tough road games include Jacksonville (Sept. 9), New Orleans (Sept. 24), Denver (Nov. 19), Cincinnati (Nov. 25), Kansas City (Dec. 16) and Indianapolis (Dec. 30). Tough home games include Indianapolis (Sept. 24), Carolina (Nov. 4), Jacksonville (Nov. 11), San Diego (Dec. 9) and NY Jets (Dec. 23). The Titans have a tough schedule, the start will be brutal- at Jacksonville, vs. Indianapolis and at New Orleans.
Best Rookie: RB Chris Henry – I pick Henry on the belief that he will eventually get the majority of the carries. Chris Brown rushed for over 1,000 yards in 2004, but has had injury problems. I’m just not a believer in LenDale White. Henry is the strongest and the fastest back on the roster. Also it is fitting that he shares the last name of the Titans’ ’06 leading rusher. I like the first-round pick of DB Michael Griffin, but he will have to learn how to play cornerback after playing safety at Texas. Also, I really liked third-round pick WR Paul Williams while he was at Fresno State. He reminds me a lot of the Bengals’ Chad Johnson. However, Williams will need at least a year before he becomes a major threat.
Big Games of the Year: vs. Jacksonville (Sept. 9- 1:00pm- opening game), vs. Indianapolis (Sept. 16- 1:00pm), at New Orleans (Sept. 24- 8:30pm- Monday), at Denver (Nov. 19- 8:30pm- Monday) and at Indianapolis (Dec. 30 1:00pm- last game).
2007 Projected Record: 9-7
Futures (Bets): The current odds for the Titans to win the AFC South are 12/1. Not that bad of a bet, the Colts are losing a bunch of talent this year. However, it is wrong to bet against the Colts. Tennessee is a very questionable team, statistically the team was terrible, but the team found ways to win games in 2006. The win total betting is set at 6 games. Even though the team is questionable, I would fire on the win-total bet. Tennessee should easily win six or more games. Currently, the Titans odds to win the Super Bowl are set at 70/1. The odds opened at 45/1. If you are a Titans’ fan it might be a good idea to a put a $100 down on your team to win the Super Bowl. For a price of a game ticket on eBay, a $100 bet could earn you enough money to get season tickets for the next six years.
August 15th, 2007
Posted by
adam |
AFC SOUTH, Tennessee |
no comments
AFC SOUTH PREVIEW
Del Rio Needs Big Season To Stay
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
2006 Record: 8-8
Last Year Summary: In 2005, the Jaguars made the playoffs with an impressive record of 12-4. Two of those losses came to the AFC South rival Colts. After the second meeting between the two teams, the Colts’ record was a perfect 13-0. Entertaining the ’06 season, the Jaguars expectations were high. However, the team finished a disappointing 8-8. On some occasions, the Jaguars could beat anybody and on other dates they literally lost to the worst teams. Jacksonville beat playoff teams Dallas (24-17), New York Jets (41-0), Philadelphia (13-6), New York Giants (26-10) and Indianapolis (44-17). Then they somehow lost to Washington (30-36), Houston twice (7-27, 10-13) and Buffalo (24-27). Despite the inconsistency, the Jaguars found themselves in the playoff hunt late in the season. They improved to 8-5 after defeating the eventual Super Bowl champions, Colts, by a score of 44-17. 
Jacksonville needed only one more win in their last three games to clinch a playoff berth, but lost to Tennessee, New England and Kansas City in consecutive weeks. David Garrard and Bryon Leftwich shared the QB duties in ’06, neither one of them were very impressive. RB Fred Taylor had another solid year, rushing for 1,146 yards on 231 carries (5 yards per carry) and scoring five rushing touchdowns. Taylor also added 242 receiving yards on 23 catches and scored one receiving touchdown. The biggest bright spot had to be rookie RB Maurice Jones-Drew, who finished the year with 941 yards rushing on 166 carries (5.7 yards per carry) and scored 13 rushing touchdowns. Also, Jones-Drew caught 46 passes for 436 yards and had two receiving touchdowns. Not to mention, he returned 31 kickoffs for 860 yards (27.7 yards per return) and scored a touchdown. Cornerback Rashean Mathis had a pro-bowl season with eight interceptions for 146 yards and defended 21 passes. Overall, the defense was great again and was second in NFL for allowing the least amount of yards per game (283.6) and was fourth in allowing the least amount of points per game in the NFL (17.1 points). Statistically the offense was good as well, they were 10th in the NFL in yards per game (338.9), third in the NFL in rushing per game (158.8) and ninth in the NFL in scoring per game (23.2). It is safe to say that this team was a lot better than their 8-8 record indicated.
Additions: WR Dennis Northcutt (Cleveland), OT Tony Pashos (Baltimore), TE Jermaine Wiggins (Minnesota), S Sammy Knight (Kansas City) and S Kevin McCadam (Carolina).
Subtractions: TE Kyle Brady (to NE), S Deon Grant (to SEA), WR Cortez Hankton (to MIN), S Donovin Darius (to OAK), P Chris Hanson (to NO) and CB Ahmad Carroll.
2007 Season Summary: Prior to Jack Del Rio’s arrival in Jacksonville, the team was on a decline with Tom Coughlin. The three seasons prior to Del Rio, the Jaguars held a record of 17-31. In his first season, Jacksonville was 5-11. However, they went 9-7 in ’04 and then 12-4 in ’05. Del Rio raised the expectations too high and his team finished 8-8 last and is remarkably on the hot seat in ’07. Del Rio continues to change his coaching staff by adding Dirk Koetter (new offensive coordinator), Todd Monken (new wide receiver coach), Mike Shula (new quarterback coach) and Joe DeCamillis (new special teams coach). All the coaching changes don’t seem to be helping and only four remain from Del Rio’s original ’03 staff. This offseason, Leftwich was named the starter and the rumor was that Del Rio coveted Brady Quinn, but was overruled come draft day from above. Nonetheless, the Jaguars have a championship caliber defense. Also, they have a bunch of talent on offense. A great running game and some young talented, but underachieving wide receivers. I expect the Jaguars to be in the playoff picture, but the AFC South has dramatically improved since their 12-4 season in ’05. The Colts continue to dominate, the Titans now have Vince Young and the Texans continue to build through the draft. Tough road games include Denver (Sept. 23), Kansas City (Oct. 7), New Orleans (Nov. 4), Tennessee (Nov. 11), Indianapolis (Dec. 2) and Pittsburgh (Dec. 16). Tough home games include Tennessee (Sept. 9), Indianapolis (Oct. 22), San Diego (Nov. 18) and Carolina (Dec. 9).
Best Rookie: S Reggie Nelson – Currently, Nelson is listed behind Nick Sorensen at free safety. However, eventually and maybe as soon as the season opener against Kansas City, Nelson will be the starter. You can say what you want about Nelson, but one thing is for sure, he is a playmaker. I like some of the other picks like second-rounder LB Justin Durant of Hampton and fourth-rounder DE Brian Smith of Missouri. Both players should help the Jaguars in the future, Smith is recovering from a major injury, but will be a good pass-rushing end in the NFL. Durant is a very fast linebacker, who could use some time to develop.
Big Games of the Year: vs. Tennessee (Sept. 9- 1:00pm- opening game), at Kansas City (Oct. 7- 1:00pm), vs. Indianapolis (Oct. 22- 8:30pm- Monday) and at Indianapolis (Dec. 2- 1:00pm).
2007 Projected Record: 10-6
Futures (Bets): The current odds for the Jags to win the AFC South are 7/2. Not that bad of a bet, the Colts are losing a bunch of talent this year. However, I still wouldn’t do it. The win total betting is set at 9 games. Currently, the Jaguars odds to win the Super Bowl are set at 25/1.
August 13th, 2007
Posted by
adam |
AFC SOUTH, Jacksonville |
no comments
By Adam Kiefaber
First Pick of the Year
New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers in the Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio on the NFL NETWORK- 8:00 p.m.
Some handicappers would recommend that you don’t bet on the preseason, while others will tell that it is a great way to make money. The latter is based on the idea that certain teams play to win while others don’t care. While that is true, you must be careful that handicappers aren’t just trying to get you to bet. It isn’t like they tell you that the preseason is the time to bet and to take the rest of the season off.
Personally, I would find it hard to bet on the preseason. It would be like betting on the Pro Bowl or another meaning-less sporting event. However, there are numbers out there, determining which numbers reflect what will happen and what won’t happen is the tricky part.
Since it is the first preseason game of the year and some of you might have that football itch, I will try to break down this Sunday’s (August 5th) Hall of Fame game.
But before I do, I want to warn all of you that once you bet on the game that you will want to watch the whole thing. That might sound easy now, but come halftime you are going to want to change the channel. Also, the game is on the NFL Network. If you don’t have the NFL Network, you might end spending more money on a bar tab than you would make in winnings. That is if you pick the right team.
And the right team is the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover what is now a 2.5-point spread against the New Orleans Saints.
Here are the key factors:
First, the Hall of Fame just so happens to be featuring an exhibit on the Steelers 75th year anniversary. The exhibit runs through August 31st and with the proximity of Pittsburgh to Canton, Ohio compared to the trip from New Orleans to Canton- you would to expect a large Steeler following to attend the game.
Second, is that head coach Sean Payton didn’t seem too concerned about winning in the preseason last year. In ‘06, the Saints looked awful and finished 1-3 in the preseason. Then they turned it on during the regular season, going 10-6 and making it to the NFC Championship. The Steelers’ Mike Tomlin should have his team excited and he will want to win in his debut as head coach. Sources say that Tomlin has been pushing his team very hard in training camp practices. Also, the Steelers were the first team to open for training camp.
Third, after Drew Brees was injured in the Pro Bowl you have to imagine that Payton won’t want his franchise QB in the game for that long if at all. After Brees, the Saints feature Jamie Martin, Jason Fife and Tyler Palko. Martin has only eight regular-season starts in his 13-year career, while Fife is more known for appearing in the movie Addams Family Values than being an NFL QB (His role was Camper #1). Keep an eye on Palko, who has NFL abilities, but is a rookie and shouldn’t play well with the talent that will be on field late in the game. However, he could get some garbage points, but a 2.5-point spread is hard to get ruined by garbage points. The second-string QB is the most important player in the preseason and the Steelers have Charlie Batch. Followed by Brian St. Pierre and Bryan Randall. St. Pierre has only one pass attempt in the regular season during his four seasons in the NFL. That isn’t impressive, but he has more preseason experience than Fife or Palko. I think the Steelers have a clear-cut advantage at the QB position.
If you like the Saints:
The only thing that hurts the Steelers chances of covering the 2.5-point spread is the injuries. Linebackers James Harrison and Lawrence Timmons are both expected to miss the game as is starting running back Willie Parker. Parker has a sore left knee but it’s not believed to be serious. With Parker out, Najeh Davenport will likely get the start at tailback.
THE PICK: STEELERS -2.5: 75% SURE On picks I will give a sure-percentage 50% is a coin flip, in this case 75% is a solid bet)
August 3rd, 2007
Posted by
adam |
Preseason Picks |
no comments
AFC SOUTH PREVIEW
The Defending Champs
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
2006 Record: 12-4
Last Year Summary: In 2006, the Colts looked unstoppable. They started off the year with nine straight wins and had everyone talking about the ’72 Miami Dolphins. The Dallas Cowboys ended the Colts’ win streak with a 21-14 victory in what happened to be QB Tony Romo’s debut at Texas Stadium. After going 9-0, the Colts stumbled into the playoffs with a 3-4 record, which included a loss to the lowly Houston Texans (Ron Dayne had the game of his NFL life- 153 rushing yards and two TDs). Many thought the Colts were cursed- Tony Dungy was entering his ninth straight season as a head coach in the playoffs without a Super Bowl trip, while Peyton Manning’s playoff record of 3-6 never allowed the Colts to make the Super Bowl. Also, the Manning curse theory had a lot to do his career at Tennessee. He stayed for his senior season at UT for a national title run. If he had left he would’ve easily been the #1 overall pick in the NFL draft. His ’97 team fell just short, while QB Tee Martin led UT to a National Championship the following year. 
So, the thought was that Dungy and Manning would come up short again in ’06. In their first postseason game, the Colts beat up on Kansas City, by a score of 23-8. Then Adam Vinatieri won a field goal (went 5-for-5) battle against Baltimore in a boring 15-6 win. In the AFC Championship the Colts looked as if they were going to blow it again. The Patriots took a 21-3 lead, after Asante Samuel intercepted a Manning pass and took it 39 yards for a touchdown. The Colts surprised the country and came back to win 38-34 in one of the greatest playoff games in recent memory. After a slow start, the Colts found themselves down 14-6 after the first quarter of the Super Bowl against the Bears. Indianapolis woke up and beat Chicago up worse the 29-17 final score would indicate.
Additions: QB John Navarre (Arizona), G Rick DeMulling (New Orleans) and TE Mike Seidman.
Subtractions: OT Tarik Glenn (retired), RB Dominic Rhodes (to OAK), WR Brandon Stokley (to DEN), DT Monte Reagor (PHI), LB Cato June (to TB), CB Nick Harper (to TEN), S Mike Doss (to MIN), CB Jason David (to NO), LB Gilbert Gardner, LB Mike Labinjo and WR/KR Terrence Wilkens.
2007 Season Summary: After Tony Dungy took over the Colts in ’02, he has posted a 60-20 regular season record. Last year, they won their first nine games and in ’05 the Colts won their first 13. The ’07 version loses a lot of talent, especially on the defensive side of the ball, so I don’t expect Indy to make a run at the ’72 Dolphins. However, there is no reason to believe that this team cannot compete for another Super Bowl. The loss of LB Cato June has to hurt the worse, also the secondary is depleted after losing S Mike Doss and starting CBs Nick Harper and Jason David. Don’t forget that S Bob Sanders, who is biggest playmaker in secondary, played in only four games last year. Also, the Colts feature a great pass-rushing duo at DE in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, which makes a secondary appear better than what they really are. The loss of OT Tarik Glenn is huge. Tough road games include Tennessee (Sept. 16), Jacksonville (Oct. 22), Carolina (Oct. 28), San Diego (Nov. 11) and Baltimore (Dec. 9). Tough home games include New Orleans (Sept. 6), Denver (Sept. 30), New England (Nov. 4), Kansas City (Nov. 18), Jacksonville (Dec. 2) and Tennessee (Dec. 30).
Best Rookie: WR Anthony Gonzalez – Currently the Colts have one of the best duos in the NFL with WRs Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. But when you have Manning as your QB there are many opportunities to make plays. Manning has thrown for 37,586 yards in his nine years in the NFL (that’s over 4,176 yards per season). Indy cleared way for Gonzalez by releasing WR Brandon Stokley, who had 68 catches for 1,077 yards and 10 touchdowns in ’04. Gonzalez is a hard worker and should be a solid receiver from day one. I like third-round pick CB Daymeion Hughes, who is thought by some to be a first-round talent. Also, second-round pick OL Tony Ugoh might get some time in at tackle or guard this season since the team will be without OT Tarik Glenn.
Big Games of the Year: vs. New Orleans (Sept. 6- 8:30pm- Thursday- NFL Opener), vs. New England (Nov. 4- 4:15pm), at San Diego (Nov. 11- 8:15pm), at Atlanta (Nov. 22- 8:15pm- Thanksgiving) and vs. Tennessee (Dec. 30- 1pm- Last week of the season).
2007 Projected Record: 12-4
Futures (Bets): The current odds for the Colts to win the AFC South are 2/11. That bet is worthless. The win total betting is set at 11.5 games. Currently, the Colts odds to win the Super Bowl are set at 11/2. For you non-math majors, a $1,000 bet for the Colts to win the Super Bowl would pay $5,500. Not a bad bet.
August 2nd, 2007
Posted by
adam |
Indianapolis, AFC SOUTH |
no comments
