VEGAS ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XLII
Team Open Current
New England Patriots——— open 9/1———current 5/1
Indianapolis Colts——— open 6/1———current 11/2
San Diego Chargers——— open 9/2———current 6/1
Chicago Bears——— open 6/1———current 8/1
Baltimore Ravens——— open 14/1———current 10/1
New Orleans Saints——— open 12/1———current 12/1
Cincinnati Bengals——— open 12/1———current 15/1
Seattle Seahawks——— open 15/1———current 15/1
Dallas Cowboys——— open 18/1———current 20/1
Denver Broncos——— open 25/1———current 25/1
Jacksonville Jaguars——— open 18/1———current 25/1
New York Jets——— open 28/1———current 25/1
Philadelphia Eagles——— open 20/1———current 25/1
Pittsburgh Steelers———open 20/1———current 25/1
Carolina Panthers———open 25/1———current 30/1
New York Giants———open 30/1———current 30/1
St. Louis Rams———open 40/1———current 40/1
San Francisco 49ers———open 60/1———current 45/1
Green Bay Packers———open 75/1———current 50/1
Minnesota Vikings———open 50/1———current 50/1
Washington Redskins———open 50/1———current 50/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers———open 75/1———current 60/1
Tennessee Titans———open 45/1———current 70/1
Arizona Cardinals———open 100/1———current 75/1
Atlanta Falcons———open 75/1———current 75/1
Buffalo Bills———open 60/1———current 75/1
Kansas City Chiefs ———open 40/1———current 75/1
Miami Dolphins———open 75/1———current 75/1
Cleveland Browns———open 125/1———current 100/1
Houston Texans———open 100/1———current 100/1
Detroit Lions———open 125/1———current 125/1
Oakland Raiders———open 150/1———current 150/1
(odds taken from http://www.vegasinsider.com)
July 10th, 2007
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The Carolina Panthers (1-3) at The Philadelphia Eagles (4-0)
Against the Spread: Panthers 2-2-0 | Eagles 4-0-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Eagles -7.5 -109 Over/Under 41.5 -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Eagles -9 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Eagles -8.5 -110
Over/Under 41.5-42 -104 to -110
The Cincinnati Bengals (1-3) at The Cleveland Browns (2-3)
Against the Spread: Bengals 0-4-0 | Browns 2-3-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Browns -3 -107 Over/Under 40 -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Browns -3 EVEN to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Browns -2.5 -110 to -115
Over/Under 41 -41.5 -110
The Green Bay Packers (1-4) at The Detroit Lions (3-1)
Against the Spread: Packers 1-4-0 | Lions 3-1-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Packers -1 -110 Over/Under 43.5.5
Current High NFL Betting Line: Lions -2.5 -103 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Lions -2 -110
Over/Under 44.5 to 45 -110
The Houston Texans (2-3) at The Tennessee Titans (2-3)
Against the Spread: Texans 2-3-0 | Titans 2-3-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Titans -5.5 -110 Over/Under 46 -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Titans -6.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Titans -6.5 -105
Over/Under 45 -110
The Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) at The Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2)
Against the Spread: Chiefs 1-3-0 | Jaguars 3-2-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -2.5 -101 Over/Under 41.5 -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -2.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Chiefs -2 -105 to -110
Over/Under 43.5 to 44 EVEN -110
The Miami Dolphins (0-5) at The Buffalo Bills (0-4)
Against the Spread: Dolphins 1-4-0 | Bills 2-2-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Bills -6 -108 Over/Under 32 -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Bills -6 -114
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Bills -6 -110
Off The Board at most Online Casinos / Sportsbooks
The San Diego Chargers (3-2) at The Atlanta Falcons (4-1)
Against the Spread: Chargers 3-1-1 | Falcons 2-3-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Falcons -5.5 -105 Over/Under 41 -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Falcons -5 -101 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Falcons -4.5 -110
Over/Under 42 -110
The Seattle Seahawks (3-1) at The New England Patriots (4-0)
Against the Spread: Seahawks 3-1-0 | Patriots 3-0-1
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Patriots -4 -102 Over/Under 42 -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Patriots -4.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Patriots -4 -105 to -115
Over/Under 42 -103 to -110
The San Francisco 49ers (1-4) at The N.Y. Jets (4-0)
Against the Spread: 49ers 3-2-0 | Jets 3-1-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Jets -9.5 -105 Over/Under 41 -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Jets -11 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Jets -10 -101 to -110
Over/Under 42.5-43 -110
The Washington Redskins (1-4) at The Chicago Bears (1-3)
Against the Spread: Redskins 1-4-0 | Bears 2-2-0
Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Redskins -1.5 -110 Over/Under 34.5 -110
Current High NFL Betting Line: Redskins -1 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Redskins EVEN to +1 -107 to -110
Over/Under 34 to 34.5 -110
The Denver Broncos (4-1) at The Oakland Raiders (2-3)
Against the Spread: Broncos 1-2-2 | Raiders 2-3-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Broncos -1.5 -107 Over/Under 44 -102o -108u
Current High NFL Betting Line: Broncos -2.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line Broncos -105 -110
Over/Under 43 -110
The Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) at The Dallas Cowboys (2-2)
Against the Spread: Steelers 3-2-0 | Cowboys 2-2-0
Game Time: 4:15 PM ET
Opening NFL Betting Line: Cowboys -3 EVEN Over/Under 38 -105
Current High NFL Betting Line: Cowboys -3 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Cowboys -3 -105
Over/Under 38 -110
The Minnesota Vikings (3-1) at The New Orleans Saints (2-3)
Against the Spread: Vikings 2-2-0 | Saints 1-4-0
Game Time: 8:30 PM ET ESPN
Opening NFL Betting Line: Vikings -3 -116 Over/Under 50 -101o -109u
Current High NFL Betting Line: Vikings -4 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Vikings -3 -120
Over/Under 51 -110
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4) at The St. Louis Rams (3-2)
Against the Spread: Rams 2-3-0 | Buccaneers 1-3-1
Game Time: Monday 9:00 PM ET ABC Monday Night Football
Opening NFL Betting Line: Rams -6 -105 Over/Under 41 -100o -110u
Current High NFL Betting Line: Rams -7 -110 to -115
Current Low NFL Betting Line: Rams -6 -110
Over/Under 42.5 -110
Ricky Williams and The Miami Dolphins…
The saga continues.
David Cornwell, an attorney for retired running back Ricky Williams, said Tuesday he is trying to arrange a meeting with the NFL to convince the league that Ricky Williams should be reinstated to play this season without facing a suspension. Representatives for Williams filed retirement papers in August several weeks after it was learned that he had failed a third drug test for marijuana, which carries an automatic four-game suspension. Under NFL rules, Williams would face an automatic yearlong ban if returning from retirement before one calendar year had expired….
October 13th, 2004
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I just had to post this one. Too funny. I will have week 6 betting lines up shortly. Until then hope you get a chuckle out of this…
MOST-WANTED OFFENDERS
BY Greg Couch Sun-Times Columnist
The Bears will play the Washington NFL football team Sunday, and it’s going to be impossible to write about that and not offend people.
How do you do it?
The Washington NFL players were too strong for the Bears? Think of the trouble in writing headlines.
The “R” word is going to slip out for sure on radio, on TV. This is not an endorsement or condemnation, but the team name is:
Redskins.
Their theme song includes the line: “Braves on the warpath, fight for old D.C.” And it used to include, “Scalp ‘em, swamp ‘em. We will take ‘em touchdown. We want heap more.”
Sports is still a politically incorrect world. And to some, that means people are being too uppity and should just lighten up. To others, it means there are a bunch of racists and sexists out there who rather would hurt people’s feelings than, say, change their theme song. Or put down their tomahawks or flaming spears.
”Quite frankly, you’d get kicked in the butt pretty hard for calling a team Boston Blackskins or New Jersey Jews or something like that,” said Stephen Kaufman, the University of Illinois professor who has helped lead a fight against the school’s use of Chief Illiniwek as its mascot. “So we’ve moved on some of these things. Society has progressed. But on this one issue, we’re stuck.”
It is true that in the politically incorrect sports world, there are fewer and fewer insulting things. The Pekin Chinks, after all, are now the Pekin Dragons. So names have changed under the pressure.
And most of the remaining questionable names or events would stand to insult American Indians or women. Although there are still some other possible jabs at, say, Irish people, fat people, unpatriotic people.
“A lot of it is how powerful the group is who’s offended,” said Gerald Gems, a sports historian at North Central College. “It’s about whether they can make a dent in ticket sales or if someone has political power.
“Indians are the one group that doesn’t really have enough power, it appears, to really force a change. African Americans, Jews, Catholics, anyone with vocal power, can stop these things.”
Here is a list, in no particular order, of some of the remaining, never-ending, issues:
1. REDSKINS: Start with what is possibly the most offensive. A few surveys have come out recently showing that American Indians don’t consider the word bothersome. But academics question the way the studies were done.
“It’s probably among the most offensive terms you could use to refer to a Native American,” said Jay Coakley, a sports sociologist at the University of Colorado at Colorado Springs. “Savages would be right up there, too. And red raiders.
“Those polls might ask people if they are Native Americans, and the people might say yes, they have some relative [who is]. But they haven’t grown up Native American, haven’t lived the culture, seen how the culture has been ripped off by other people. Those people aren’t going to object to anything.”
Coakley equated the R-word with the N-word. And Gems said that the team picked up that name after it hired William Lonestar Dietz as a coach.
“He was at least partial Indian,” Gems said. “And the owner had him dress up in Sioux headdress and buckskins and perform.”
2. THE MATADORS: The Bulls’ dance team of fat guys. Kids are fighting a serious obesity problem as a health issue in this country, and critics suggest that the Matadors are mocking fatness. Others suggest that they are mocking women.
“Guys have looked at halftime dancers [female dance teams] without taking them seriously,” Coakley said. “I don’t know if the women should be out there or not. But they do work hard, have a routine. With [the Matadors], it’s just one big cut. ‘We don’t take women seriously, and I’ll show you how seriously we don’t take them. Take a look at our routine.”’
WSCR morning host Mike North, who might be the king of the politically incorrect, doesn’t see it that way.
“I love the Matadors,” he said. “I think that’s great. Yeah, they’re making fun of fat people, but they are fat. If they were really making fun, they would have pillows stuffed underneath.
“It’s just like Chris Farley did the Chippendale thing [tryouts with Patrick Swayze] years ago on ‘Saturday Night Live.’ Or maybe he was just making fun of the fact that some of these dancers all have to be so perfect.”
3. CHIEF ILLINIWEK: The argument never seems to end over this. Are the Chief and his dance a way of honoring our state’s American Indian heritage? Is the halftime dance a step-by-step historical enactment of proud people? That’s the claim of the Chief’s supporters.
“The thing is, it’s not historically accurate,” Gems said. “The guys at Illinois wear a Sioux headdress. But the Sioux never lived in Illinois. They would have to come up with some other tribe if they really wanted to be historically accurate.
“That dance is completely made up. They studied dances before coming up with that, but the Indians themselves say that one is made up. It’s a stereotype. That’s what offends them.”
Coakley said that many of those dances were considered religious traditions anyway and shouldn’t have been copied.
4. THE FIGHTING IRISH: Notre Dame has a leprechaun with his dukes up for a mascot. And the term fighting Irish would seem to further a stereotype. Coakley, Gems and North don’t have a problem with this one.
“I’m half-Irish, and the Irish people don’t get mad about this,” North said. “So why should the Indians get upset about Redskins?”
Coakley explained: “If the Irish were currently experiencing the same things as the Native Americans are, the poverty, unemployment, then that wouldn’t be good. And the leprechaun is just a mythical figure anyway.”
But didn’t Irish people used to suffer poverty, unemployment and prejudice against them?
“Yes, but they have their fair share of resources now,” Coakley said.
“And 100 years from now, we might not be talking about Redskins anymore, if the Native American casinos take off and tribal identities are tied to opportunity and not oppression.
“Some people would disagree with me on that anyway and say stereotypes are bad no matter what. For example, even when Jews are doing fine, does that mean anti-Semitism is no longer a problem?”
Gems said the name Fighting Irish actually might be seen as a compliment.
“The ironic thing is that they have the Fighting Irish and the leprechaun, but most of the players are African-American,” he said. “It’s something that doesn’t fit anymore. But the whole tradition that goes along with it, with the Irish as working-class people. It might have stood for working-class ethnics as a group, who see that as a positive.”
5. TOMAHAWK CHOP: Florida State is credited (blamed?) for this act, in which fans move their arms in a tomahawk motion while chanting.
“The ironic thing is you had Jane Fonda, Ted Turner’s wife, practicing the chop at Atlanta Braves games,” Gems said. “Here she is considered one of the most radical liberals, whom Vietnam vets were ready to string up. And she’s doing that?”
6. BEACH VOLLEYBALL: The sport itself is in question, especially when the women are playing. They wear bikinis, and at the Olympics, a bikini dance team from the Canary Islands would come out between points and bump and grind to blaring disco music. The crowd dances along and makes habit of drinking heavily.
It is a real-life beer commercial.
And when the Americans won gold at the Olympics, it was not their success that drew the attention, but rather their down-in-the-sand hug.
Is it something that gives young girls another sport to play? Or is it just selling sex, booze and beach life?
7. SPORTS TERMS: North said that quarterbacks still are throwing bombs and defenses still are blitzing. And in wartime, he believes, those terms aren’t acceptable. Not in a fun, lighthearted way.
“They’re still using war terms, still calling guys warriors,” he said.
“Sammy [Sosa] will always tell you he’s a gladiator.”
North said that when it comes to the war, sensitivity is required.
“I was watching ‘College Gameday’ this weekend, and they were picking between USC and the California Golden Bears,” North said. “Lee Corso took a bear and pretended to cut his head off. And that was just after the British gentleman lost his head in Iraq.”
8. AUGUSTA NATIONAL: Still no women members at the club where they play the Masters. Golf has the exclusive image, and when its most prestigious club excludes women, that sends a message. On the other hand, it is a private club.
9. SHINGO TAKATSU: When the White Sox closer, who is Japanese, comes into games, the Sox blare a gong sound over the p.a. They do it after he gets players out, too. The Sox reportedly asked him in advance if that would bother him, and he approved it.
10. CHIEF WAHOO: The Cleveland Indians’ mascot is a silly-looking American Indian with a huge grin on his face. The question is whether this is something we should be laughing at.
October 12th, 2004
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The Buffalo Bills (0-3) at The N.Y. Jets (3-0)
Opening NFL Betting Line Jets -6.5 -110 Over/Under 37.5 -105
Current High NFL Betting Line Jets -7 -105 to -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line Jets -6.5 -106 to -110
Over/Under 37.5 EVEN to -110
Oh the humanity! Let’s re-cap this year so so far… Pan in, large crowd of adoring fans roaring as the Buffalo Bills storm onto the field. Well that’s were the good part of this story ends. They dropped their home opener to the Jaguars. Ok, the Bills made QB Byron Leftwich look like a school-yard chump for almost the entire game. But only almost. In the final moments of the forth quarter, in a way that only the Bills know how to do, they allowed him to march 80 yards and put it in the end zone for the win. Moving to week two, Bills looking to rebound with what should have been a relatively easy win, get a mauling that the final score (13-10 Raiders) doesn’t reflect. Week three brings a sigh of relief from the Bills fans nationwide… they are on a bye. So we go to week four well rested and ready to go get ‘em, NOT! New England hands them their silly looking helmets and asks them to please quietly leave the stadium. So what is the Bills problem? Quarter back Drew Bledsoe, that’s what. He is not a leader, he fails when they most need him. He takes great field position and turns it into nothing. He makes stupid calls and is slow to catch onto what the defense is doing. Very rarely do I put the blame on a single player, but there is no getting around it in this case. Despite the injuries the Bills have managed to put solid defensive numbers on the charts. They are not without weapons offensively either. Running back Travis Henry may not be the best back in the league but he’s not a total loser. They have a better than decent receiver corp in Eric Moulds, Josh Reed and the emerging down-field threat, Lee Evans. So what else could the problem be?
The Jets by contrast keep changing their colors. Last week proved that they can get it done on multiple levels. Mixing a great ground game with a solid passing attack to beat the defensively stout Miami Dolphins and stay undefeated. On the other side of the ball they do not deserve the label of being a “soft defense”. The Jets have the best giveaway-takeaway ratio in the league (+8). They are patient, lying in wait for their opponent to make a mistake. And when that happens they pounce and take advantage of it. Running back Curtis Martin is on pace for another 1400+ yard year, and QB Chad Pennington keeps showing his pose, intelligence and leadership every game. I think this is going to be the week that coach Herman Edwards lets his conservative game play get a little liberal. They will be facing a 4th ranked rushing defense in the Bills but the 18th ranked passing defense. Time to let loose a bit. The Jets get the nod for this one.
My Online Betting: Jets -6.5
The St. Louis Rams(2-2) at The Seattle Seahawks (3-0)
Opening NFL Betting Line Seahawks -6.5 -112 Over/Under 44 -105
Current High NFL Betting Line Seahawks -7.5 -105
Current Low NFL Betting Line Seahawks -6.5 -115
Over/Under 43.5 to 44 -107 to -110
The St. Louis Rams finally covered the spread last week against the 49ers. Well Rams fans, don’t put much stock in that. The defense you saw was against an anemic offense that has holes all over the place. Yes running back Marshal Faulk looked like the back of old, and wide receiver Isaac Bruce looked great. But please remember, they didn’t score a point the entire second half! Plus they let one of the worst offenses in the league put 2 touch downs on the board in the fourth quarter. Quarter back Marc Bulger didn’t show me much, certainly not enough for me to change my opinion of him. They are over glorified has beens (no offense Torry, you own). Now they have to play one of the most well balanced defenses in the NFL. It ain’t gonna be pretty, folks.
The Seattle Seahawks continue to impress. Sitting at the top of the rankings at number 1 on the defensive side of the ball (3rd rush 6th pass), they have the most balanced defense today. Granted they have not faced off against dominating offenses, but in reality there are only three of those anyway, the Colts, Eagles and Vikings. The Seahawks are middle of the pack offensively with an overall ranking of 16th, but are again very balanced (13th rushing, 15th passing). Coach Mike Holmgren is one of the best in the business, with a lot of talent around him to work with. Quarter back Matt Hasselbeck, wide receivers Koren Robinson and Darrell Jackson, not to mention running back Shaun Alexander. I was scared off the big points spread last week against the 49ers. I’m not going to do the same again.
My Online Betting: Seahawks -6.5
Going to let things sit at that. Still trying to decide wether or not there is any value in the late game or Monday Night Football. I will probably post my take on these games just because, but as of this moment I don’t see an online wager being placed on either game.
October 9th, 2004
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I’m going to mix things up this week. Rather than my usual lengthy analysis of every game, I’m going to stick to the ones that look like they have Gambling appeal.
The Cleveland Browns (2-2) at The Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)
Opening NFL Betting Line Steelers -6 -105 Over/Under 38 -105
Current High NFL Betting Line Steelers -7 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line Steelers -6 -110
Over/Under 37 -104 to -110
Veteran Vs. Rookie. Browns pit rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger against seasoned veteran QB Jeff (I squeak when I talk) Garcia. The Browns’ need this win to keep pace in the AFC North. The question is, do they have the manpower to do it? This is not the same relatively healthy team that came up big against the Baltimore Ravens in week 1. Garcia is not without skill but he isn’t a stud with ¾ touchdown to interception ratio, a passer rating of 67.9 and a completion percentage just north of 50. Although Garcia does a good job spreading the ball around, he doesn’t get enough time to do it. He’s been sacked 10 times, 7 of those coming in the last two games. The injury riddled offensive line of the Browns’ has just not gotten the job done. The shinning light is the tandem running backs, William Green and the emerging Lee Suggs. But can they alone make the difference in this game? I don’t think so.
The Steelers have some skill. Wide receiver Hines Ward will play and we all know what he can do. Add WR Plaxico Burress and to a lesser degree Antwaan Randle El into the fray and you have a solid receiving core. Rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger has shown that he has the ability to get the job done. He has a none too shabby passer rating of 86.2 and a completion percentage right around the 61 mark. But the big difference here is DEFENSE. The Steelers’ thus far have allowed an average of only 254 yards a game while the Browns give up nearly 350. While they may be evenly match, more or less, on the ground each giving up around a 100 yards a game it’s the air attack that seems to really favor the Steelers. The Browns give up an average of 236 yds per game and they have not played against a team with what anyone would consider a passing juggernaut. Then you have the ground game, Duce Staley will most likely start, Jerome Bettis will get his goal line carries and Verron Haynes will be used effectively in 3rd and short situations.
My Online Betting: Steelers -6
Possible bet: Under 37
The Minnesota Vikings (2-1) at The Houston Texans (2-2)
Opening NFL Betting Line Vikings -3.5 -108 Over/Under 49.5 -105
Current High NFL Betting Line Vikings -4.5 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line Vikings -4 -110
Over/Under 49.5 -110
Here are two lack luster defenses against one great offense in the Minnesota Vikings and an up and coming offense in the Houston Texans. In week three I correctly put money on the Texans. Then I left them alone against Oakland assuming that the KC game was, although predictable, not going to be the norm for Houston. The Vikings, on the other hand, have had my action one way or the other all season and they have not disappointed me with the exception of their play against the Bears. There is no need in going into any lengthy commentary about the Vikings offense, it’s just too obvious. But there are a couple points that are worth mentioning. Running back Onterrio Smith starts his four game substance abuse suspension this week. So with Bennett out, this means that rookie HB Mewelde Moore will probably start, Larry Ned will get some carries and the injured (calf) Moe Williams will be getting some situational playing time. The other factors are, WR Randy Moss is not 100% and the TE position is anyones guess with Jermaine Wiggins’ continued sideline stay. How much will this effect the Vikings? Maybe not quite as much as one might surmise.
The Houston Texans have surprised me. RB Domanick Davis is going to play, sharing touches with Jonathan Wells and Tony Hollings. QB David Carr took normal reps on Friday and will be fine tomorrow. Wide receiver Andre Johnson’s numbers keep getting better, breaking the 100yd. receiving mark last week. Even though WR Corey Bradford will sit out Jabar Gaffney will step in as the number 2 wide-out with something to prove. The Texans can get the job done on the ground as well as in the air averaging 115 and 236 yards a game respectively. Is it enough to win or even keep the game within a field goal? That’s a much tougher call. The Texans D is going to have there hands full there is no doubt about it but coach Dom Capers has discovered the Blitz, and it’s effectiveness. Despite my better judgment my instinct tells me that the Texans come up with a win.
My Online Betting: Texans +4 (small bet)
The Oakland Raiders (2-2) at The Indianapolis Colts (3-1)
Opening NFL Betting Line Colts -9 EVEN Over/Under 52.5 -105
Current High NFL Betting Line Colts -10 -110
Current Low NFL Betting Line Colts -9 -110
The Raiders are getting worse as the season progresses. Their offensive line all but completely broke down against the Texans last week. QB Kerry Collins had a dismal outing forcing the ball and being the center of their woes with 5 turnovers. Running back Tyrone Wheatley is out, and Justin Fargas is bothered by the infamous “turf toe” yet coach Norv Turner has not sidelined him. He will be a “game time” decision but the RCA Dome turf doesn’t bode well for him even if he does get playing time. Sounds to me like Amos Zereoue is there best chance of moving the ball on the ground. If they can’t get something going on the ground just for the sake of time of possession, it’s going to be even uglier than I expect.
The Colts are Rockin’ and Rollin’ their only defeat coming at the hands of the mighty New England Patriots and only by a field goal. Since then they have laid waste to those that have had to do battle with them. Beating their opposition by an average of almost 12 points. The Jacksonville game being the closest margin of only 7. They may not have the statistical numbers that they would like on the defensive side of the ball, but then again they haven’t for the last three years. Plus they aren’t facing a team that really worries me. As for the offense, what the hell do I need to say. It’s star studded! The weakest link (if you could really call it that) is at running back and I’m not ready to count The Edge, Edgerrin James, out yet. He’s been beaten up to be sure, but the man still has some moves left. The Colts will come out firing and I just don’t see what the Raiders are going to be able to do to stop it.
My Online Betting: Colts -9
Have to go do “the life” thing for a bit. I’ll have a couple more games later this evening. So thanks for dropping by, try not to laugh at me too much.
October 9th, 2004
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Confidence is contagious. So is lack of confidence.
Vince Lombardi
After Edgerrin James’s three-yard touchdown run gave the Colts a 24-17 lead, Jacksonville drove into Indianapolis territory with less than two minutes to play. But Fred Taylor came up short on fourth-and-one, and the Colts ran out the clock.
Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, showing uncommon poise for a rookie not expected to play this season, twice rallied the Steelers and Duce Staley ran for 123 yards. Roethlisberger went 17-of-25 for 174 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions to easily better Cincinnati counterpart Carson Palmer in a duel that may be repeated for years in the AFC North.
Tiki Barber ran for a 52-yard touchdown and 182 yards overall, while Kurt Warner threw a touchdown pass to Jeremy Shockey to lead the Giants. Green Bay quarterback Brett Favre was knocked from the game with a head injury.
David Akers kicked four field goals, and Donovan McNabb threw for 237 yards and a TD to lead Philadelphia as the Eagles improved to 4-0 for the first time since 1993.
It took 36 games, but the Texans have their first win streak. That means it’s finally time for quarterback David Carr to get a haircut. Carr vowed last September he wouldn’t cut his hair until Houston won consecutive games. Now, he can happily head to the barber.
Lee Suggs, who missed the Browns’ first three games with a neck injury, rushed for 82 yards and scored on a three-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter. Jeff Garcia went 14-of-21 for 195 yards and a TD for the Browns, who didn’t secure the win until Washington’s Laveranues Coles fumbled with two minutes left.
The Jets forced four turnovers, including an interception returned 66 yards for a touchdown, to improve to 3-0 for only the third time in franchise history. New York also won its first three games in 1966 and 2000. The Dolphins fell to 0-4 for the first time since their expansion season in 1966.
Emmitt Smith earned another NFL record with his 77th 100-yard rushing game, and threw the first pass of his 15-year pro career. It went for a touchdown. The NFL’s career rushing leader gained 127 yards in 21 carries.
The Falcons improved to 4-0 to match the best start in franchise history. Atlanta last opened a season 4-0 in 1986
Drew Brees threw for three touchdowns, including a 58-yard toss to Reche Caldwell midway through the fourth quarter, and LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 147 yards and one TD for the Chargers.
Denver quarterback Jake Plummer threw a five-yard TD pass to Patrick Hape and Jason Elam kicked three field goals to help keep Tampa Bay (0-4) winless.
October 5th, 2004
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The Kansas City Chiefs(0-3) at The Baltimore Ravens(2-1)
Opening NFL Betting Line Ravens -4.5 -110 Over/Under 41.5 -110
Current High -7 -110
Current Low -5.5 -110
Over/Under 40.5-41.5 -110
It’s Monday Night Football and boy oh boy do we have a match-up. NOT!
The Chiefs come into tonights game already having dropped more games than they did all season last year. Unfortunately for them I do not see the bleeding being stopped in Baltimore tonight. They have dismal offense with the exception of premiere running back Priest Holmes. This is not to say that they have no offense, it’s just missing too many pieces. With WR Eddie Kennison not expected to play, Donte’ Hall, minor though it may be (lips), playing hurt and RB Priest Holmes starting with an ankle injury, it’s probably not even going to show the spark of life that it did last week against Houston.
The Ravens are not a whole lot better when it comes to offense. Although they rank near the bottom of the pile (25th overall) the come in 2nd rushing the ball. Here’s the kicker, even though the Chiefs’ are not far behind that number at 5 the Ravens can stop the rush (10th ranked) whereas the Chiefs cannot(29th).
So where does that leave us as far as a wager on this game goes? Well, since you asked, not as bad as it may look. I don’t think that you can count on the Ravens to stop the Chiefs completely. Holmes will be Holmes after all and with TE Tony Gonzalez attracting double coverage, receivers Johnnie Morton, Donte’ Hall and to a lesser degree youngster Chris Horn are going to get looks. So taking the Ravens to cover a TD, more or less, might be a taller order than it appears at first glance. By the same token, saying that the Chiefs will stay in it to the end as they did against the Texans’ is equally treacherous. So is there money worth spending on this game? I think so. The Under at 41.5 or so. Both teams are going to try and establish a running game against the other. This is going to eat up time. Ravens’ running back Jamal Lewis can get it done and I believe that the same can be said of Holmes. Barring him be seriously hampered with his ankle problem he will be able to ground out some yards. More importantly though is the fact that neither team has much in the air. That almost forces them into ground warfare even if they weren’t planning it.
Bottom line, I have money on the Under at 41.5.
October 4th, 2004
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The St. Louis Rams(1-2) at The San Francisco 49ers(0-3)
Opening NFL betting Line St. Louis Rams -3.5 -110 Over/Under 44 -110
Current High -4 -105
Current Low Unchanged
Over/Under 44.5 -110
I’m not going to go into my typical long winded analysis of this match-up. Both teams look very much alike on paper in the offense. The Rams have better pass ranking, contrastly the 49ers have the better rush ranking.
On the other side of the ball the 49ers can mount a pretty decent rush D but not much against the pass. The Rams, however, offer up nothing defensively.
So what’s the difference, the Rams can throw the ball. I don’t like QB Marc Bulger, but he has great wide outs to throw to. That is going to be the key in this match-up.
My pick: St.Louis Rams get their first cover. I, despite my better judgement, actually have money on the Rams -3.5. It’s not a lock, but not a waste either.
October 3rd, 2004
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The Oakland Raiders(2-1) at The Houston Texans(1-2)
Opening NFL betting line Raiders -2 -110 Over/Under 42.5 -110
Current High Raiders -3 -115
Current Low Raiders -2 -110
Over/Under 42-42.5 -110
What can I really say about this game? The Raiders are bad, they lost to the underachieving Pittsburgh Steelers and their two wins are against, arguably, the worst looking offenses in the NFL. That being the Buffalo Bills and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, ranked 27th and 30th overall, respectively. What’s more they allowed the Bucs’ to score their first TD of the season, in route to their 30 to 20 victory. Oakland managed to up their overall offensive ranking with that win but they are still dismal. Granted they have something in the defense, but it isn’t all that stellar and let us not forget that they are going to be without QB Rich Gannon. Did I mention that they allowed the Buccaneers first TD?
The Houston Texans are not any better. They have a middle of the road defense ranking of 15th and the same on the other side of the ball at 14th. The same thing has to be said about that number as I said about Oaklands’, it was much bolstered by their win against the Kansas City Chiefs. Not exactly what you would call a dramatic, season changing win.
This will be a game that only the die-hard fans of either team will be able to watch with any enthusiasm what so ever.
Putting money on this game in any form is a waste, God only knows what could come of this match-up. If you have to have action, stick to a small wager and look at the Under 42.5 or higher.
Side Notes: Under is 19-9 in Raiders last 28 vs. Conf. Opp., Over is 5-1 in Houston in the last six played in October, Texans are 8-3 ATS last 11 vs. winning teams.
The Philadelphia Eagles(3-0) at The Chicago Bears(1-2)
Opening NFL betting line Eagles -8.5 -110
Current High Eagles -10 -105
Current Low Eagles -8.5 -115
Over/Under 39-40 -105 to -110
The Eagles are soaring but are they really soaring that high? Let’s take a look at those three wins. Week 1 was against the N.Y. Giants who were playing at their worst with gaping wounds on both sides of the ball. Week 2 brought us the first real test of the Eagles D against the Minnesota Vikings. They held them to only 16 points and showed that they have a bit of defense (sorry Bronczilla, gotta go another direction here). Week 3 ended much as it should have with a thorough routing of the Detroit Lions. Although they rank a meager 24th overall defensively, that doesn’t tell the whole story. They are in the top five when it comes to points allowed, with opponents only able to dig out 15.3 a game. And this has all been done ON THE ROAD. Maybe this is a fluke, just the right teams to play at the right time. Maybe it is superior coaching on the part of Phili’. But maybe, just maybe, they really are putting a solid defense on the field, that is allowing yardage, but not scoring.
Now let’s move on to the Chicago Bears. With the loss of QB Rex Grossman adding to the already extensive IR list, the injury plague continues unabated in Chicago. This means that QB Jonathan Quinn will sit behind center, and will be doing a lot of handing the ball off. Philadelphia will be loading the box against the Bears to stop the only thing that they have left, RB Thomas Jones. Although the passing game was starting to warm up with Grossman throwing to wide receivers David Terrell and Bobby Wade, that’s not going to continue with Quinn. They are going to have to fall back to the Bears of old with a ground and pound attitude. So even though I greatly respect what they have done with what they have, I just don’t see their defense keeping them in this one for four quarters.
My take is simple, Phili isn’t Green Bay or Minnesota or Detroit. They are on a rush and I don’t see the Bears putting a stop to it. It will probably come late in the game but it will come, the Eagles will go up by 10 and stay there. I have put a little money on this game and it’s for the Eagles -8.5.
Side Notes: Road team is 3-1 ATS in last four meetings, Eagles are 10-3 ATS in last 13 vs. sub .500 teams, Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last eight at home.
The Washington Redskins(1-2) at The Cleveland Browns(1-2)
Opening NFL betting line Redskins -3 -110 Over/Under 36 -110
Current High Redskins Unchanged
Current Low Redskins Unchanged
Over/Under 35.5-35 -110
This is another gut it out game. The Redskins give up 100+ yards less in the air, 50+ yards less on the ground and the point differential is negligible(less than a point diff.) Washington has the number 3 ranked defense and even though the offense isn’t what coach Joe Gibbs wants it to be yet, it’s starting to show sparks of life. The Redskins MNF game against the Cowboys showed us that much. Clock management, or lack there of, was all that kept that game from going into OT. QB Mark Brunell had his game face on and if it wasn’t for a couple of key dropped balls by WR Laveraneus Coles they may very well have never had to look to a last ditch effort.
The Browns on the other hand opened the season with a big win against AFC North opponent Baltimore Ravens. But that was then and this is now. They have since dropped the last two at home against the Cowboys by 7 and the Giants by 17. While Cleveland may well get back their starting CB Daylon McCutcheon he’s not going to be 100% and will be playing with one of three different casts the trainers have made for him. Added into the mix is the fact that their other starting CB, Anthony Henry, is suffering from vertigo. On paper the Browns are behind in almost every category and the 3 point home field advantage is not going to be enough.
Final analysis, if you are going to wager on this game there are two ways to go. The Under is not bad if you can get it at around it’s opening mark of 36, but that might be tough to do. Taking the Redskins -3 is also not a terrible wager although I don’t think that I will be putting my cash on it.
Side Notes: Under is 5-2 in Redskins last seven overall, Browns last five overall have played Under, Browns are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 overall, Redskins are 1-3 ATS in their last four overall.
The Atlanta Falcons(3-0) at The Carolina Panthers(1-1)
Opening NFL betting line Panthers -3.5 -110 Over/Under 40 -110
Current High Panthers -3.5 -110 to -115
Current Low Panthers -3 -120
Over/Under 38.5-39 -110
The Falcons baffled me with their complete lack of offense last week vs. the Cardinals. What happened Vick? Seriously what the heck went wrong? I think I know. They played a stingy defense. Arizona is another team who’s overall DEF ranking does not show the whole picture. They give up yardage to be sure but the have a redzone D that’s worth mentioning and a pretty solid pass D. And I think that’s what happened last week. QB Michael Vick is going to have to do exactly what coach Jim Mora doesn’t want him to do, RUN! The running game is the only chance the Falcons have, because it is the only place the Panthers DEF is suspect.
The Panthers have given up an average 130+ yards a game and are going to have to improve those numbers against the Falcons. They are also another team that weren’t really effected with the bye. They are still without RB Stephen Davis and WR Steve Smith and the week off wouldn’t have changed that. They have adversity to overcome to be sure, but RB DeShaun Foster continues to get better and WR Keary Colbert appears to be filling in the shoes of oft’ injured Steve Smith quite well. I see them coming into their own as the season progresses and think that the Falcons are going to be a small test of that this week.
My take, for what it’s worth, is that the Panthers can keep the field long for the Falcons and if they can do a bit better against the rush will win this one by a TD or better. Panthers -3-3.5 is not a crap shoot, and the Under at 39 is a solid pick.
Side Notes: Falcons are 0-3 ATS in their last three played in Oct., Panthers are 1-3 ATS in last four at home in Oct, Under is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings, Under is 12-4 in CAR’s 16 when total is 38.5-42, Under is 9-3 in the Falcons last 12 overall.
The New Orleans Saints(2-1) at The Arizona Cardinals(0-3)
Opening NFL betting line Saints -3 -110 Over/Under 40.5 -110
Current High Saints -3.5 -100
Current Low Saints -3 -115
Over/Under 39.5-40 -105 to -115
In a nutshell I don’t like this game against the spread. The Saints are a streaky team and can throw away what should be a gimme as easily as win. Couple that with the Questionable list that carries the names of RB Duece McAllister, wide-outs Joe Horn, Talman Gardner, and Jerome Pathon, and it looks worse. But it’s the Saints and you just don’t know. They may come up big and blow out the Cards’ or they may fall apart and give the Cards’ their first win of the season.
The Cardinals are one of those teams that look bad on the spread sheet, yet somehow seem to come up with something on the field that keeps them in close games. They have very little offensively and have given up 370 yards in the air and 180 on the ground and yet have managed to hold opponents to an average of only 15 points a game. This includes keeping the reigning Champion Patriots out of the end-zone three times from the 2, 10, and 2-yard line in the second half. They stymied any attack that the Falcons proffered up and kept them out of the end-zone entirely. Does this mean that they are going to get their first win? Not necessarily. But it does mean that the Saints are going to have to SHOW UP to get a win.
Logic would tell you that the Saints cover -3 without issue. But this is football not mathematics. The things in play here are best noted by the adage “On Any Given Sunday”. My advice, stay away from the spread and if you want action take the Under at 40.
Side Notes: Saints are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, Saints are 5-2 ATS in last seven played in Oct., Under is 13-4 in the Cards last 17 at home, Under is 9-2 in Arizona last 11 played in Oct.
The Denver Broncos(2-1) at The Tampa Bay Buccaneers(0-3)
Opening NFl betting line Broncos -3 -110 Over/Under 36 -110
Current High -3.5 -105
Current Low -3 -125
Over/Under 35 -110
Despite charging from the gate with 156 yards against the Chiefs in week one RB Quentin Griffin has not filled the void left by Clinton Portis. He has subsequently been held to 66 yards on 26 carries against the Jags’. Then shared the load with running backs Garrison Hearst and Tatum Bell (Bell is inactive for game 4) getting a measly 7 yards on 12 carries and Denver was held to only a net of 37 yards on the ground. Now the Chargers are 7th against the rush, so there is at least a reason there. On the flip side, QB Jake Plummer has looked solid, with a passer rating just south of 91, with 774 yards, and 4 end-zone completions. But they are getting ready to play against the QB stat killing Bucs’ D.
The Buccaneers have laid waste to quarter backs thus far. Knocking Raiders QB Rich Gannon out and quite frankly making longtime veteran Mark Brunell and young gun Matt Hasselbeck look terrible. The Buccaneers don’t have much but a D to bring to the field. They have looked as bad behind the snap as they have made others look. The big difference being that the OTHERS have won. Tampa is playing like coach Jon Gruden looks on the sideline, Ugly.
Bottom Line Denver gets win #3 Tampa goes 0-4. But betting this one against the spread is a bad idea. In fact betting this at all is a bad idea, but if you have to get in the fray then do yourself a favor and take the Under at 35. Oh, and make it small.
Side Notes: Broncos are 0-3 ATS in last four played in Oct., Under is 4-2 in Bronco’s last six overall, Under is 6-2 in Buc’s last eight played in Oct., Under is 10-4 in Tampa’s last 14 games overall.
The N.Y. Jets(2-0) at The Miami Dolphins(0-3)
Opening NFl betting line Jets -5 -110 Over/Under 36 -110
Current High Jets -7 -110
Current Low Jets -6 -105
Over/Under 36.5-37.5 -106 to -110
Now here’s a game I can sink my teeth into. The Jets are a team that may have gotten a break with the bye in that they may be getting Kevin Mawae back at center. But even if he doesn’t stay there they will shift him to guard and play LG Pete Kendall at center. In either case Mawae is a crucial component to the Jets running game and the extra week to help his hand heal a bit is a good thing. QB Chad Pennington keeps getting better with each passing game. He has earned his unbelievable QB rating of 124.3 by playing smart, controlled football. He’s a true leader in the huddle and is the center piece of this franchise. Now that I’ve stated the obvious let’s get to the downside. Defensively they are no powerhouse, they get the job done but it’s the offense that is relied on to win games. This is going to be their first real test of that theory.
The Dolphins come into this game a battered team. They have an injury list as long as my arm, have little weaponry at their disposal to put points on the board and no hope that I see of that changing any time soon. The Dolphins don’t give up much in the air but they do on the ground. Now they are going to have to play a team that has a solid ground game as well as a solid passing game led by a top notch QB. This is not going to be like playing the Steelers with rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger or the Bengals with upstart QB Carson Palmer or even the seasoned veteran of the Titans, QB Steve McNair. All of those teams hang on the bottom rungs of the rankings. They are playing The Jets. Number three overall and only looking to better the pass ranking of 13th this week.
Pick Of The Week Jets -6 is a solid wager. I grabbed it at -5.5 but I don’t see the extra ½ point as being enough to turn your back on this game.
Side Notes: Not going to bother, this Miami team isn’t in the ballpark of it’s former self. So any and all trends go out with the tide.
The Tennessee Titans(1-2) at The San Diego Chargers(1-2)
Opening NFL betting line Titans -3 -110 Over/Under 41 -110
Current High Unchanged
Current Low Unchanged
Over/Under Unchanged
This is a game that looks to be about as fun to watch as the Raiders vs. Texans. The Titans’ QB Steve McNair is a big question mark to play Sunday with a bruised sternum and twisted ankle. Which means that the five year unknown QB Billy Volek might well get the nod. Even if McNair does manage to start he’s going to play like he has a good portion of his career, hurting.
The Chargers don’t have an injured QB to worry about, they just have to worry about what happens when they put one the field. QB Drew Brees has been a bust from day one. Back-up QB Doug Fluties’ best days are way behind him, and they were never what anyone would consider hallmark days. But they do have RB LaDainian Tomlinson. I wish there was more but there just isn’t. I could ramble off some random rankings but it’s a mute point. These are two teams that are in desperate need.
Bottom line I wouldn’t put free money on this game either way although Titans will probably come up with the win. The Over at 41 is just shy of throwing your money away. Best bet stay away from this one.
Side Notes: Over is 6-1 in Titans last seven played in Oct., The last two meetings have played under, Over is 7-3 in the Chargers last 10 in Oct., Over is 8-3 in SD last 11 games overall, Chargers have won the last three meetings ATS.
October 1st, 2004
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The Cincinnati Bengals(1-2) at The Pittsburgh Steelers(2-1)
Opening NFL betting line Steelers -3.5 -110 Over/Under 39 -110
Current High Steelers -5 -110
Current Low Steelers -4 -110
Over/Under 38-39 -110
I wrote about 250 words on this match-up and as I read I realized that I was doing exactly what I was trying to avoid. I just can’t be objective when talking about The Bengals. The fact is I love this team and that makes everything I write suspect. Even when I’m writing a disparaging paragraph about them I’m overly harsh, because My Opinions of what should be happening on the field are not happening. So I’m going to refrain from giving a take on this game, but I’m saving my draft, and will post it later for anyone who may be interested.
The Indianapolis Colts(2-1) at The Jacksonville Jaguars(3-0)
Opening NFL betting line Colts -3.5 -110 Over/Under 42 -110
Current High Colts -4.5 -110
Current Low Colts -3.5 -115
Over/Under 43 -110
Well For those that saw The Packers vs. The Colts we all know what’s in store for The Jacksonville Jaguars. Even though The Jaguars Secondary is not nearly as suspect as the Packs’, sitting towards the top of the heap at a solid 8th against the pass, let us not forget the weapons that are at the disposal of Payton Manning. Could we see Tight End Dallas Clark finally emerge on the scene this week? If that happens it will only mean more bad news for The Jaguars.
Ah, The Jaguars… Despite only having scored a total of 35 points in the first 3 games they sit atop their division ahead of The colts by one game, and stand proud as one of only 6 teams that are undefeated. But they are going to have to do a lot to keep that lofty status this Sunday. Despite the fact that they will be going up against the leagues worst defense (32nd overall) they are going to have to be a different team offensively than we have seen thus far to make it a game that their defense can keep them in. They have won the close ones because they were close. They have thus far played ball against mediocre offenses, and this ain’t a mediocre offense. They have not shown the prowess that they are going to have to have on the offensive side of the ball to keep up.
Analysis: If you can get them -3.5 or 4, it’s not a horrible bet. The Over/Under I would stay away from.
Side Notes: Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six overall, Colts are 1-6 ATS in last seven played in Oct., Jaguars are 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.
The New England Patriots(2-0) at The Buffalo Bills(0-2)
Opening NFL betting line Patriots -5.5 -110 Over/Under 35.5 -110
Current High Patriots -6.5 -110
Current Low Patriots -5.5 -110
Over/Under 35 -110
The New England Patriots sit tied with the N.Y. Jets in the AFC East and are also undefeated. They are coming off a bye week which means, well it means nothing really. This early in the season, it just doesn’t mean as much as those teams that are going to be getting theirs in weeks 7-10. Those players that it could have impacted, namely WR Deion Branch and QB Tom Brady, it didn’t. Well maybe it aided Brady a bit, giving him the opportunity to rest his shoulder an extra week. But he’s listed as Probable and will start and it would have been the same last week. Branch is Doubtful, will probably not play, and that wouldn’t have been any different last week. They, and I mean the The Pats’ as a whole, didn’t really need a break and in fact it might be to their detriment. In week one those beat The Colts in a close game and had just started to show us a bit of the NFL Championship winning offense in the win against The Arizona Cardinals in week two. But that being what it may, they are relatively healthy, are the reigning Champions and have everything to prove. Brady may not be the best QB in the game but he is a true leader and that counts for a ton in this day and age.
The Bills however are stingy when it comes to giving up points, holding their opponents to an average of only 13 points and giving up only 249 total yards a game. They are 4th against the rush and 6th against the pass, despite the loss of Strong Safety Lawyer Milloy in the pre-season. So where’s the catch? It’s two fold really, first the numbers are deceiving. To begin with, their first game was against The Jaguars, and we know what kind of offense they can mount, their second was against The Raiders. Who, until last weeks game, were just a whisper above The Jags’. But it doesn’t stop there, they LOST to both of them. Now the second part, I for one am still waiting for the resurgence of QB Drew Bledsoe and The Bills Offense that I keep hearing talk about but have yet to see materialize. Bottom line even at home I don’t think they will be getting their first win of the season this weekend.
But wins and losses don’t always matter when it comes to handicapping, so when it comes down to laying money on this game I have to lean towards staying away from this one. The Pats’ could as easily cover as not. It’s a coin flip in my opinion. The Over/Under on the other hand is not nearly as treacherous. If you want action on this game and were asking my opinion I would say, “make it small and take the Under at 35”.
Side Notes: The last 10 meetings have played Under, Under is 16-2 in Bills last 18 overall.
The N.Y. Giants(2-1) at The Green Bay Packers(1-2)
Opening NFL betting line Packers -7 -110 Over/Under 44 -110
Current High Packers -7.5 Even
Current Low Packers -7 -110
Over/Under 43.5-44 -110
The N.Y. Giants are not playing giant football, but they aren’t without merit either. They lost to a much better team in their Home opener to The Philadelphia Eagles, and The Eagles covered. They walked on the field an underdog to The Washington Redskins and won. Then did exactly what they were supposed to do in beating The Cleveland Browns, covering the spread in the process. Now the face off against The Packers. Boy, oh boy, I don’t like this one. The Giants are hurting at nearly every position, and their lack of depth due to this means that any injury during this game is going to have an impact. The most susceptible point being in the secondary. With the injury reserved list in all likelihood getting the name Shaun Williams (Strong Safety) added another strike there could be the proverbial straw. I have to say that they have played proudly despite these problems but are really going to have their plate full when they hit Lambeau Field. Quarter Back Kurt Warner and crew are going to have to try and follow suit, and do as much damage in the air as they can.
Now we move on to the Packers, who are not fairing much better in their secondary. With CBs Mike McKenzie and Ahmad Carroll both listed as Questionable and the vulnerability that was exposed and exploited by The Colts, they also have the problem of being hurt nearly everywhere else on defense. The rift in the locker room, trade talk about McKenzie and the ailing shoulder of QB Brett Favre all add up to a tough road ahead for The Packs’. Running Back Ahman Green is going to have to step up big for this game. If the Packers can’t do a good job of clock management with long drives that keep their desolated defense on the sidelines it mean the first three game losing streak in Mike Sherman’s five seasons at the helm.
Enough rambling, let’s get to the heart of this, my “pick”. The Packers certainly have the skills to cover 7 points on the offensive side of the ball but can they keep The Giants from lashing right back at them. I think they can. Favre is known for his ability to come big when the chips are down. They are going to be at home, and that is worth more than the standard 3 points in this case. I may actually put a little of my own money on this one.
Bottom line Packers -7 is worthy of a early season small wager. Probably a safer bet, however, is the Over. Particularly if you can get it down around the 43 mark.
Side Notes: Packers are 3-1 ATS in the last three meetings, Giants are 2-5 ATS in last seven Oct. games, Packers are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 overall
Well I ended up writing a lot more than I intended so I’m going to break here and finish with the rest of week 4 tomorrow. My thanks for dropping in and taking a peek.
September 30th, 2004
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