Preseason Football: To Bet or Not to Bet
By Adam Kiefaber
First Pick of the Year
New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers in the Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio on the NFL NETWORK- 8:00 p.m.
Some handicappers would recommend that you don’t bet on the preseason, while others will tell that it is a great way to make money. The latter is based on the idea that certain teams play to win while others don’t care. While that is true, you must be careful that handicappers aren’t just trying to get you to bet. It isn’t like they tell you that the preseason is the time to bet and to take the rest of the season off.
Personally, I would find it hard to bet on the preseason. It would be like betting on the Pro Bowl or another meaning-less sporting event. However, there are numbers out there, determining which numbers reflect what will happen and what won’t happen is the tricky part.
Since it is the first preseason game of the year and some of you might have that football itch, I will try to break down this Sunday’s (August 5th) Hall of Fame game.
But before I do, I want to warn all of you that once you bet on the game that you will want to watch the whole thing. That might sound easy now, but come halftime you are going to want to change the channel. Also, the game is on the NFL Network. If you don’t have the NFL Network, you might end spending more money on a bar tab than you would make in winnings. That is if you pick the right team.
And the right team is the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover what is now a 2.5-point spread against the New Orleans Saints.
Here are the key factors:
First, the Hall of Fame just so happens to be featuring an exhibit on the Steelers 75th year anniversary. The exhibit runs through August 31st and with the proximity of Pittsburgh to Canton, Ohio compared to the trip from New Orleans to Canton- you would to expect a large Steeler following to attend the game.
Second, is that head coach Sean Payton didn’t seem too concerned about winning in the preseason last year. In ‘06, the Saints looked awful and finished 1-3 in the preseason. Then they turned it on during the regular season, going 10-6 and making it to the NFC Championship. The Steelers’ Mike Tomlin should have his team excited and he will want to win in his debut as head coach. Sources say that Tomlin has been pushing his team very hard in training camp practices. Also, the Steelers were the first team to open for training camp.
Third, after Drew Brees was injured in the Pro Bowl you have to imagine that Payton won’t want his franchise QB in the game for that long if at all. After Brees, the Saints feature Jamie Martin, Jason Fife and Tyler Palko. Martin has only eight regular-season starts in his 13-year career, while Fife is more known for appearing in the movie Addams Family Values than being an NFL QB (His role was Camper #1). Keep an eye on Palko, who has NFL abilities, but is a rookie and shouldn’t play well with the talent that will be on field late in the game. However, he could get some garbage points, but a 2.5-point spread is hard to get ruined by garbage points. The second-string QB is the most important player in the preseason and the Steelers have Charlie Batch. Followed by Brian St. Pierre and Bryan Randall. St. Pierre has only one pass attempt in the regular season during his four seasons in the NFL. That isn’t impressive, but he has more preseason experience than Fife or Palko. I think the Steelers have a clear-cut advantage at the QB position.
If you like the Saints:
The only thing that hurts the Steelers chances of covering the 2.5-point spread is the injuries. Linebackers James Harrison and Lawrence Timmons are both expected to miss the game as is starting running back Willie Parker. Parker has a sore left knee but it’s not believed to be serious. With Parker out, Najeh Davenport will likely get the start at tailback.
THE PICK: STEELERS -2.5: 75% SURE On picks I will give a sure-percentage 50% is a coin flip, in this case 75% is a solid bet)
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